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Oil prices have skyrocketed as a result of the instability. Brent crude, a global pricing benchmark for most internationally traded crude oil, jumped as much as 13% on Monday to $86 a barrel, and analysts warn that attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf or an extended closure could bring it to $100 or higher. The last time oil prices were that high was in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in sweeping international sanctions targeting Russian petroleum exports. Prices have remained below $80 for the past year.

The NCAR team spent the next ten years working on the problem with researchers at airlines, universities, the F.A.A., NASA, and NOAA—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “It was a national imperative,” Cornman said. Luckily, the beginnings of a solution were already in place. The team at NCAR had used sophisticated new Doppler radar systems to detect microbursts. When those were added to the wind detectors already installed at many airports, and the two systems were integrated with software that Cornman developed, microbursts could be detected as they were happening. “A problem where hundreds of people were dying suddenly stopped,” Cornman said. The last time a commercial flight was downed by a microburst in the U.S. was in 1994.

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