However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.
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While the root cause of the water shortages was extreme weather, the water regulator for England and Wales found that they were “in part attributable to and/or exacerbated by failures by South East Water itself to develop and maintain an efficient water supply system”.
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